CS Insights: Are Corporate Executives as Uncertain as the Market?

There’s been no shortage of news articles referencing the declining state of the American consumer over the past several months, with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index falling 7.2 points in March to the lowest reading since January 2021.

However, that cautious tone has yet to be fully echoed by corporate executives on U.S. corporate earnings calls.

Our analysis of earnings transcripts of U.S. companies in the first quarter of 2025 found that, while there was a rise in Collected’s “Uncertainty Index” – the number of references to a variety of phrases mentioning an uncertain economic environment – we’re still well short of where we were when inflation and recession predictions dominated calls in the second half of 2022.

We observed a 15% increase during the first quarter, but the Uncertainty Index is still down by almost 50% from the peak in the third quarter of 2022. We’ve observed mostly similar trends regarding references to a recession and inflation, too. Inflation references increased by 14% during the first quarter while remarks about a recession, which generally trend in the same direction, fell to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2022.

Executives tend to moderate their tone on macro events so it is likely that commentary is trailing their actual views and will lead to a sharper uptick during the next earnings cycle. News and events are moving so quickly in this environment, however, that it remains to be seen the extent to which executives will wade in prior to having actual data pointing to a downturn.

Tariffs on the Other Hand….

Discussions of tariffs dominated earnings calls during the past three months in a way that few topics have before.

Comments about tariffs skyrocketed by 380% in the first quarter, demonstrating how much the topic is on the minds of analysts and executives alike. The topic came up on more than one third of U.S. earnings calls tracked.

Not surprisingly, certain industries saw far more interest in tariffs than others. We observed the biggest increase among retailers, industrials (most notably machinery and electronic equipment manufacturers), chemicals and household durables.

AI AIn’t Just for Tech Companies

While AI continues to dominate tech earnings calls, an interesting dynamic has arisen as companies in most every other industry have begun discussing the topic, too.

To illustrate this, we excluded companies with a technology or IT related industry designation and looked for references to AI-related topics, including Gen. AI and machine learning.

Not surprisingly, interest in the topic exploded after OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT in late 2022. Since then, we’ve observed a continued increase in AI references, with the trend continuing in the first quarter. AI commentary has increased by approximately 350% since the fourth quarter of 2022.